[SMM Analysis]China’s lithium hydroxide exports plunged to 1,248 tonnes in July.

In 2025H1, the global NEV market continued to grow, with a remarkable YOY increase of 25%. By country/region, China's NEV sales in H1 2025 remained the global leader, with a penetration rate of 46.6%. Policy support and price wars drove strong growth among domestic brands, and exports reached record highs. In Europe, market demand showed signs of recovery, but NEV growth was only in the low single digits due to subsidy reductions and supply chain bottlenecks, while Chinese automakers accelerated localized layouts to capture market share. The U.S. NEV market lagged behind China and Europe, with high interest rates and policy uncertainty suppressing its potential. Emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America showed early signs of explosive growth.

The immediate catalyst for the futures rally stems from supply concerns over mining license compliance issues in Jiangxi. Market sources indicate eight lithium mines in Jiangxi face rectification orders for environmental and licensing violations, with one major mine's license set to expire in early August under uncertain renewal prospects. Should renewal fail, this could force a temporary suspension, potentially cutting monthly supply by 10,000 LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent).

Dazhong Mining Accelerates the Formation of an 'Iron Ore + Lithium Ore' Dual-Driven Strategy

As 2025 draws near, the lithium sector is experiencing increasingly vibrant transformation driven by a combination of international demand for green technology, evolving regulatory environments, and changing patterns of supply. This has witnessed price action and trends going awry as new markets evolve to feed the world's insatiable lithium appetite. It is where we would be talking about the prevailing trends in the price of lithium, the supply chain pressures emanating from all over the world driving the same, and how the emerging economies are pushing the new normal with their support to the same.

Tianqi Lithium has determined that continuing construction on this project is "economically unviable” and thus terminate the development of the Phase II of Kwinana's Lithium Hydroxide Project in Australia, an investment of RMB 1.412 billion, representing 2.74% of the company’s audited net assets for the previous fiscal year. The termination of this project is expected to reduce the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2024 by approximately RMB 501 million, which accounts for 6.86% of the company’s audited net profit for the most recent fiscal year.

Rapid growth in electric vehicles and renewable energy storage has thrust lithium-one of the most important raw materials in battery manufacturing-into being highly sought after. At an accelerating secular trend toward sustainability and decarbonization worldwide, lithium batteries power everything from electric cars down to solar energy systems. But this fast-scaling lithium-ion battery production has its equal challenge, namely: how to recycle such batteries effectively and sustainably.

On January 2, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a file titled “Notice on Adjustments to the Public Consultation for the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Exporting from China.” The notice mentions the potential implementation of export restrictions on battery and lithium processing related technologies. The deadline for feedback submission is February 1, 2025.

The use of lithium-ion batteries has become essential in todays‘ technology landscape as the power gadgets, like smartphones and laptops well as electric vehicles (EVs). Their ability to store an amount of energy and be recharged easily has led to advancements in energy storage solutions that are vital for both consumer and industrial sectors.

The cost of lithium batteries has become a factor, in industries nowadays, especially with the growing popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) and sustainable energy options like solar power and wind energy solutions. Prices not only reflect the demand for these batteries but also mirror the overall market conditions related to lithium-ion technology. To grasp the pricing of lithium batteries properly one must carefully analyze market trends and past price changes that have influenced the development of the sector.

[Lithium Weekly Update] "These scenarios should not be interpreted as a forecast by Arcadium Lithium as to the likely range of Lithium price in the second half of 2024, which they are not. However, they were lower from the initial pricing scenarios we provided in order to be more reflective of where the market is today, " said Gilberto Antoniazzi, Arcadium CFO.